Date & Time: 09/26/2022 @ 10:00 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
A transition event was the weather highlight of last week followed by general drying and warming over the past weekend. Heading into this week we’ll continue the warmer than average temperatures and even work in some modest storm/rain chances before the season officially ends on Friday. Looking at the big picture, high pressure remains centered over the Desert Southwest, but will slowly build east back into TX over the coming days. In the near term, southerly flow will help draw moisture back into the region and lead to daily t-storm chances mainly focused over the higher terrain areas with spottier coverage across the lower deserts. Temperatures will also remain elevated the next few days with readings hovering in the 103˚F-105˚F range.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies into the afternoon. Daytime temperatures will quickly climb into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the 5-10mph range with localized gustier conditions this evening/tonight. Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop across the Mogollon Rim and southern AZ this afternoon/evening. Some of this activity will try and move into the lower deserts. Brief downpours will be possible with any stronger storms though outflows with gusty winds and blowing dust are most likely for the lower deserts including the greater Phoenix Valley.
For tomorrow plan on predawn debris clouds before mostly sunny skies the remainder of the day. Afternoon highs will again warm into the 102˚F-104˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will continue to hover in the light category with no localized greater gusts around 10-20mph during the late afternoon/evening hours if any outflows move through the County. Storm chances should mainly be limited to the higher terrain areas with little activity expected in and around the Phoenix Valley. We’ll have one more day of above normal highs before a general cooling trend through the second half of the work week. More on this in tomorrow’s Outlook.